Why Good Decisions are Hard to Make (Part 1)

What is a difficult decision that you needed to make recently?

There are any number of reasons why a decision might be difficult…

  1. The problem lacks structure, and it’s not clear what the distinct options are or what the possible outcomes may be
  2. There is no quantifiable data that can be used to create a rigorous analysis
  3. There is too much data – which leads to contradictions or confusion
  4. After going through a logical process of reasoning, the conclusion seems counterintuitive. Should you believe the results?
  5. Not able to reach consensus among multiple decision-makers

In the last fifty years, the field of decision analysis has emerged as a viable technique for structuring problems so that they can be analyzed through a well-defined process (c.f., Big Sky Associates).

The science of decision analysis makes it a mathematical problem of solving an equation to find the right answer; however, there still remains an art: clarifying ambiguous problems and creating consensus among stakeholders.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s